Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 37.93%. A win for Girona had a probability of 35.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (6.17%). The likeliest Girona win was 1-0 (9.16%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.