Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 37.68%. A win for Girona had a probability of 37.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.79%) and 0-2 (5.5%). The likeliest Girona win was 2-1 (8.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.