La Liga Gameweek 3
Aug 30, 2026 4.00pm
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Real Madrid vs Malaga - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions
Last game
Aug 26, 2026 8.00pm
Real Madrid 4 - 1 Real Sociedad
Goals scored
6
Top scorer
Kylian Mbappé 

Malaga

All competitions
Last game
Aug 24, 2026 8.30pm
Malaga 1 - 1 Deportivo
Goals scored
1
Top scorer
Chupe

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Real Madrid win with a probability of 66.5%. A draw has a probability of 20.11% and a win for Malaga has a probability of 13.39%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8.71%) , while for a Malaga win it is 0-1 (3.95%).

Result

Real Madrid 66.5% (+5.18)
Draw 20.11% (-1.68)
Malaga 13.39% (-3.45)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.2% (-1.65)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.45% (+0.08)
Under 1.5 21.55% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 56.6% (+0.20)
Under 2.5 43.4% (-0.20)
Over 3.5 35.58% (+0.83)
Under 3.5 64.42% (-0.83)
Over 4.5 23.81% (+1.51)
Under 4.5 76.19% (-1.52)

First Half Winner

Real Madrid 48.52% (+2.74)
Draw 36.92% (-0.54)
Malaga 14.56% (-2.21)

Team To Score First

Real Madrid 65.34% (+2.73)
No Goal 5.93% (-0.06)
Malaga 28.73% (-2.67)

Corners

Over 8 63.71% (+2.10)
Equal 8 10.5% (-0.19)
Under 8 25.79% (-1.91)
Over 9 52.51% (+2.09)
Equal 9 11.2%
Under 9 36.29% (-2.10)
Over 10.5 41.52% (+1.92)
Under 10.5 58.48% (-1.92)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 1.5 61.62% (+3.47)
Under 1.5 38.38% (-3.47)
Over 2.5 35.16% (+3.61)
Under 2.5 64.84% (-3.61)
Over 3.5 16.63% (+2.63)
Under 3.5 83.37% (-2.63)

Malaga Goals

Over 0.5 46.56% (-5.30)
Under 0.5 53.44% (+5.30)
Over 1.5 18.46% (-3.87)
Under 1.5 81.54% (+3.88)
Over 2.5 5.28% (-2.01)
Under 2.5 94.72% (+2.02)
Over 3.5 1.48% (-0.71)
Under 3.5 98.52% (+0.71)

Score analysis

Real Madrid 66.51%
Draw 20.11%
Malaga 13.39%
Real Madrid
1-0 @ 11.68% (+0.57)
2-0 @ 11.5% (+1.06)
2-1 @ 9.2% (-0.41)
3-0 @ 7.81% (+1.02)
3-1 @ 6.24% (+0.26)
3-2 @ 3.55% (-0.10)
Other @ 16.53% (+2.77)
Total : 66.51%
Draw
1-1 @ 8.71% (-0.75)
0-0 @ 5.93% (-0.06)
2-2 @ 4.44% (-0.54)
Other @ 0.1% (-0.13)
Total : 20.11%
Malaga
0-1 @ 3.95% (-0.54)
1-2 @ 3.56% (-0.81)
0-2 @ 1.63% (-0.42)
2-3 @ 1.32% (-0.25)
1-3 @ 1.11% (-0.39)
Other @ 1.38% (-0.58)
Total : 13.39%

Head to Head

La Liga
Apr 15, 2018 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga)
  • Federico Ricca 36' yellowcard
  • Manuel Iturra 55' yellowcard
  • Ivan Rodriguez 81' yellowcard
  • Diego Rolan 90' goal
  • Roberto Rosales 90' yellowcard
  • goal Isco 29'
  • goal Casemiro 63'
La Liga
Nov 25, 2017 3.15pm
3
2
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)
  • Karim Benzema 9' goal
  • Casemiro 21' goal
  • Marcelo Vieira 45' yellowcard
  • Cristiano Ronaldo 76' goal
  • goal Diego Rolan 18'
  • yellowcard Adalberto Penaranda 29'
  • yellowcard Adrian 43'
  • goal Chory Castro 58'
La Liga
May 21, 2017 7.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Carlos Kameni 56' yellowcard
  • Jony 57' yellowcard
  • goal Cristiano Ronaldo 2'
  • goal Karim Benzema 55'
La Liga
Jan 21, 2017 3.15pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Sergio Ramos 35' goal
  • Casemiro 37' yellowcard
  • Sergio Ramos 43' goal
  • Lucas Vazquez 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Juankar 39'
  • goal Juanpi 63'
  • yellowcard Ignacio Camacho 78'
  • yellowcard Michael Santos 85'
La Liga
Feb 21, 2016 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Miguel Torres 2' yellowcard
  • Weligton 35' yellowcard
  • Charles 41' yellowcard
  • Ignacio Camacho 55' yellowcard
  • Raul Albentosa 66' goal
  • Carlos Kameni 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marcelo 24'
  • goal Cristiano Ronaldo 33'
  • yellowcard Luka Modric 71'
La Liga
Sep 26, 2015 5.15pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Raphael Varane 48' yellowcard
  • Nacho 52' yellowcard
  • Daniel Carvajal 89' yellowcard
  • Cristiano Ronaldo 94' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Miguel Torres 27'
  • yellowcard Recio 66'
  • redcard Nordin Amrabat 77'
  • yellowcard Carlos Kameni 83'
  • yellowcard Juan Anor 87'