Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 37.16%. A win for Porto had a probability of 36.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.35%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-0 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 36.46% | 26.39% | 37.16% |
| Both teams to score 52.93% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.16% | 51.84% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.41% | 73.59% |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.55% | 27.45% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.06% | 62.94% |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.95% | 27.05% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.59% | 62.41% |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 9.6% 2-1 @ 8.11% 2-0 @ 6.2% 3-1 @ 3.5% 3-0 @ 2.67% 3-2 @ 2.29% 4-1 @ 1.13% Other @ 2.96% Total : 36.46% | 1-1 @ 12.55% 0-0 @ 7.43% 2-2 @ 5.3% 3-3 @ 1% Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.39% | 0-1 @ 9.71% 1-2 @ 8.21% 0-2 @ 6.35% 1-3 @ 3.58% 0-3 @ 2.77% 2-3 @ 2.31% 1-4 @ 1.17% 0-4 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.17% Total : 37.16% |