Premier League Gameweek 8
Oct 24, 2026 12.30pm
Villa Park

Aston Villa vs Manchester City - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions
Last game
Oct 17, 2026 5.30pm
Newcastle 0 - 1 Aston Villa
Goals scored
7
Top scorer
Nicolas Jackson

Manchester City

All competitions
Last game
Oct 17, 2026 3.00pm
Man City 3 - 2 Ipswich
Goals scored
19
Top scorer
Erling Haaland

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Manchester City win with a probability of 57.94%. A draw has a probability of 21.97% and a win for Aston Villa has a probability of 20.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (9.66%) and 0-2 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.88%) , while for a Aston Villa win it is 2-1 (5.01%).

Result

Aston Villa 20.06% ▼ (-0.18)
Draw 21.97% ▲ (+0.92)
Manchester City 57.94% ▼ (-0.78)

Both Teams to Score: 

57.44% ▼ (-0.35)

Goals

Over 1.5 80.28% ▼ (-1.32)
Under 1.5 19.72% ▲ (+1.31)
Over 2.5 58.64% ▼ (-2.04)
Under 2.5 41.36% ▲ (+2.04)
Over 3.5 37.29% ▼ (-0.94)
Under 3.5 62.71% ▲ (+0.94)
Over 4.5 23.38% ▼ (-0.83)
Under 4.5 76.62% ▲ (+0.83)

First Half Winner

Aston Villa 23.39% ▼ (-0.24)
Draw 41.15% ▲ (+4.02)
Manchester City 35.46% ▼ (-3.79)

Team To Score First

Aston Villa 42.04% ▲ (+5.39)
No Goal 5.11% ▲ (+0.46)
Manchester City 52.85% ▼ (-5.86)

Corners

Over 8 57.02% ▼ (-1.49)
Equal 8 11.61% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 8 31.37% ▲ (+1.54)
Over 9 45.3% ▼ (-1.30)
Equal 9 11.72% ▼ (-0.20)
Under 9 42.98% ▲ (+1.49)
Over 10.5 34.44% ▼ (-1.00)
Under 10.5 65.56% ▲ (+1.00)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 1.5 26.23% ▼ (-0.38)
Under 1.5 73.77% ▲ (+0.37)
Over 2.5 8.99% ▼ (-0.21)
Under 2.5 91.01% ▲ (+0.22)
Over 3.5 2.85% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 3.5 97.15% ▼ (-0.15)

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5 83.81% ▼ (-0.66)
Under 0.5 16.19% ▲ (+0.67)
Over 1.5 57.27% ▼ (-1.59)
Under 1.5 42.73% ▲ (+1.59)
Over 2.5 30.75% ▼ (-1.06)
Under 2.5 69.25% ▲ (+1.05)
Over 3.5 13.19% ▼ (-0.95)
Under 3.5 86.81% ▲ (+0.94)

Score analysis

Aston Villa 20.07%
Draw 21.97%
Manchester City 57.94%
Aston Villa
2-1 @ 5.01% ▼ (-0.28)
1-0 @ 4.93% ▲ (+0.13)
2-0 @ 2.62% ▲ (+0.10)
3-2 @ 2.01% ▼ (-0.03)
3-1 @ 1.99% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 2.72% ▲ (+0.20)
Total : 20.07%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.88% ▲ (+0.56)
2-2 @ 5.5% ▲ (+0.01)
0-0 @ 5.11% ▲ (+0.46)
3-3 @ 1.35% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 0.13% ▼ (-0.05)
Total : 21.97%
Manchester City
1-2 @ 9.88% ▼ (-0.62)
0-1 @ 9.66% ▲ (+0.70)
0-2 @ 9.13% ▲ (+0.10)
1-3 @ 6.42% ▼ (-0.09)
0-3 @ 5.68% ▲ (+0.03)
2-3 @ 4.11% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 13.06% ▼ (-0.91)
Total : 57.94%

Head to Head

Premier League Gameweek 38
May 24, 2026 4.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Etihad Stadium
  • Antoine Semenyo 23' goal
  • Rayan Cherki 58' yellowcard
  • Mateo Kovacic  59' yellowcard
  • Rayan Aït-Nouri 77' yellowcard
  • Jérémy Doku 77' yellowcard
  • Josko Gvardiol  78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Matty Cash 45'
  • yellowcard Matty Cash 46'
  • goal Ollie Watkins 47'
  • goal Ollie Watkins 61'
  • yellowcard Youri Tielemans 73'
  • yellowcard Amadou Onana 73'
  • yellowcard Pau Torres 73'
  • yellowcard John McGinn 86'
Premier League
Oct 26, 2025 2.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Premier League Gameweek 34
Apr 22, 2025 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Etihad Stadium
  • Bernardo Silva 7' goal
  • Pep Guardiola 18' yellowcard
  • Josko Gvardiol 70' yellowcard
  • Matheus Nunes 77' yellowcard
  • Bernardo Silva 86' yellowcard
  • Matheus Nunes 90'+4' goal
  • goal Marcus Rashford 18'
  • yellowcard Lucas Digne 35'
  • yellowcard Morgan Rogers 50'
  • yellowcard Ollie Watkins 85'
Premier League Gameweek 17
Dec 21, 2024 12.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Villa Park
  • Jhon Duran 16' goal
  • Matty Cash 37' yellowcard
  • Emiliano Martinez 45'+2' yellowcard
  • Morgan Rogers 65' goal
  • John McGinn 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Rico Lewis 47'
  • yellowcard Josko Gvardiol 84'
  • yellowcard Jack Grealish 87'
  • goal Phil Foden 90'+3'
Premier League Gameweek 31
Apr 3, 2024 8.15pm
4
1
HT : 2 1
FT Etihad Stadium
  • Rodri 11' goal
  • Jack Grealish 32' yellowcard
  • Phil Foden 45'+1' goal
  • Phil Foden 62' goal
  • Phil Foden 69' goal
  • goal Jhon Duran 20'
  • yellowcard Douglas Luiz 38'
  • yellowcard Calum Chambers 90'+4'
Premier League Gameweek 15
Dec 6, 2023 8.15pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Villa Park
  • Ollie Watkins 60' yellowcard
  • Leon Bailey 74' goal
  • Boubacar Kamara 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard John Stones 45'
  • yellowcard Rico Lewis 53'