New York City FC would be assured of a home playoff game when the Major League Soccer postseason begins if they can triumph on Sunday versus Orlando City at Red Bull Arena.
The reigning MLS Cup champions followed up their 2-0 Campeones Cup triumph over Atlas by beating the New York Red Bulls by that same score in their previous encounter, while the Lions ended a two-game losing streak, blanking Toronto 4-0.
Match preview
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In a match that interim manager Nick Cushing called a 10/10 performance from his players, the Pigeons came away with another comfortable victory before the international break, allowing just a single shot on target against their biggest rivals.
Since their Campenoes Cup triumph, they look like a different team, scoring early goals in each of their previous two encounters while appearing relatively comfortable at the back.
Not long ago, the wheels appeared to be falling off this team, who had triumphed only once in their previous 10 matches before defeating Atlas.
Through much of this campaign, NYCFC have been a streaky team defensively, posting six consecutive MLS clean sheets at one point but following that up by conceding in five straight domestic affairs.
New York have won nine home fixtures this season, but they have struggled at Red Bull Arena, losing their previous two matches in Harrison this year while going winless in their last three games played there as the home team.
While they have never played the Lions in a regular season affair at Red Bull Arena, NYCFC have not lost a home fixture against Orlando City since 2018, outscoring them by a margin of 11-1 in their previous four matches in the Bronx.
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From one satisfied coach to another, we have Oscar Pareja, who called his side's performance versus the Reds a complete one, noting that his players looked well-connected throughout the 90 minutes.
The four goals which they scored was their highest output in a single match this season and the most that they have managed to tally in one regular season affair since crushing the San Jose Earthquakes 5-0 in June of last year.
Not only was it satisfying for Pareja to see his team perform so well, but it was undoubtedly a massive relief for him as well, seeing as Orlando had lost their first two MLS encounters in September by a combined score of 6-1.
The Lions may not be known for their offensive prowess, with fewer goals than any of the 14 MLS teams currently in a playoff position, but in their victory over TFC, they became the first side in league history to have at least one 10-goal scorer in each of their first eight regular seasons.
Although playing two of your final three fixtures on the road seems less than ideal, Orlando have been able to collect at least a point in 11 of their 15 MLS encounters this year as the visitors.
When the Lions can limit the damage against them, it has usually equalled results in this campaign, having claimed points in 16 matches this season when allowing a goal or fewer, losing on only three occasions.
Team News
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Alexander Callens tallied within the opening minute for the Pigeons against the Red Bulls, as Santiago Rodriguez picked up his team-leading 11th assist on that goal before he doubled the advantage on 23 minutes as Gabriel Pereira set him up.
Sean Johnson is tied with Andre Blake for the league lead in clean sheets, collecting his 14th of the year in their previous encounter, while Maxi Moralez had the only strike in their 2-1 defeat to Orlando City in late August, with Thiago Andrade assisting.
Maxime Chanot and Johnson are listed as questionable with lower body injuries, while Heber and Alfredo Morales are out for the same reasons.
Ercan Kara scored his 10th of the campaign for Orlando City in their last match, Facundo Torres netted for the 11th time in all competitions, equalling Kara for the team-high this season, Tesho Akindele notched his third of the domestic campaign and Pedro Gallese made three stops for the shutout.
In their last outing, Mauricio Pereyra became the first Lion to post multiple double-digit assist seasons in the league, tallying his 10th of the campaign, matching a single-season record for the club alongside former players Kaka (2016), Yoshimar Yotun (2018) and Nani (2019).
Cesar Araujo and Robin Jansson are questionable with an illness and a right lower leg issue respectively, while Alexandre Pato and Joey DeZart will not be available because of right knee injuries.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Gray, Martins, Tinnerholm, Callens; Haak, Moralez; Pereira, Rodriguez, Zelalem; Magno
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Ruan, Carlos, Schlegel, Moutinho; Perea, Pereyra; Torres, Urso, Mulraney; Kara
We say: New York City FC 2-0 Orlando City
The Pigeons are full of confidence at the moment, winning a pair of significant games, while Orlando looked great against Toronto, but to be fair, the Reds appeared deflated after being eliminated from postseason contention.
Momentum and quality will favour NYCFC in this one, while we expect the Lions to hang back and try to impede the home side, who have many dependable match winners.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
