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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 41.35%. A win for Mansfield Town had a probability of 30.02% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest Mansfield Town win was 0-1 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Mansfield Town |
| 41.35% | 28.64% | 30.02% |
| Both teams to score 44.8% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.6% | 61.41% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.7% | 81.3% |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.76% | 29.24% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.81% | 65.19% |
| Mansfield Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.31% | 36.69% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.52% | 73.48% |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Mansfield Town |
| 1-0 @ 13.19% 2-1 @ 8.13% 2-0 @ 8.11% 3-1 @ 3.33% 3-0 @ 3.33% 3-2 @ 1.67% 4-1 @ 1.03% 4-0 @ 1.02% Other @ 1.54% Total : 41.35% | 1-1 @ 13.22% 0-0 @ 10.72% 2-2 @ 4.08% Other @ 0.6% Total : 28.62% | 0-1 @ 10.75% 1-2 @ 6.63% 0-2 @ 5.39% 1-3 @ 2.22% 0-3 @ 1.8% 2-3 @ 1.36% Other @ 1.86% Total : 30.01% |