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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 36.23%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 34.92% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.55%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (11.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Port Vale |
| 36.23% | 28.86% | 34.92% |
| Both teams to score 45.26% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.65% | 61.35% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.75% | 81.26% |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.71% | 32.29% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.21% | 68.79% |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.85% | 33.15% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.25% | 69.75% |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Port Vale |
| 1-0 @ 12.1% 2-1 @ 7.55% 2-0 @ 6.84% 3-1 @ 2.85% 3-0 @ 2.58% 3-2 @ 1.57% Other @ 2.74% Total : 36.23% | 1-1 @ 13.36% 0-0 @ 10.7% 2-2 @ 4.17% Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.85% | 0-1 @ 11.82% 1-2 @ 7.38% 0-2 @ 6.53% 1-3 @ 2.72% 0-3 @ 2.4% 2-3 @ 1.53% Other @ 2.54% Total : 34.92% |