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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colchester United win with a probability of 38.62%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 33.99% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colchester United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (10.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Colchester United |
| 33.99% | 27.38% | 38.62% |
| Both teams to score 49.51% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.96% | 56.04% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.87% | 77.12% |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.96% | 31.04% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.64% | 67.36% |
| Colchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.8% | 28.2% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.1% | 63.89% |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Colchester United |
| 1-0 @ 10.24% 2-1 @ 7.58% 2-0 @ 5.99% 3-1 @ 2.96% 3-0 @ 2.34% 3-2 @ 1.87% Other @ 3.02% Total : 33.99% | 1-1 @ 12.96% 0-0 @ 8.75% 2-2 @ 4.8% Other @ 0.87% Total : 27.38% | 0-1 @ 11.08% 1-2 @ 8.21% 0-2 @ 7.01% 1-3 @ 3.46% 0-3 @ 2.96% 2-3 @ 2.03% 1-4 @ 1.1% 0-4 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.84% Total : 38.62% |