Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 62.75%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 15.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.34%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.4%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
| 62.75% | 22.03% | 15.21% |
| Both teams to score 45.61% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.87% | 51.13% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.02% | 72.98% |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.26% | 15.74% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.16% | 44.84% |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.13% | 45.86% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.38% | 81.61% |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
| 1-0 @ 13.34% 2-0 @ 12.34% 2-1 @ 9.62% 3-0 @ 7.61% 3-1 @ 5.93% 4-0 @ 3.52% 4-1 @ 2.74% 3-2 @ 2.31% 5-0 @ 1.3% 4-2 @ 1.07% 5-1 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.96% Total : 62.75% | 1-1 @ 10.4% 0-0 @ 7.22% 2-2 @ 3.75% Other @ 0.66% Total : 22.02% | 0-1 @ 5.63% 1-2 @ 4.06% 0-2 @ 2.19% 1-3 @ 1.05% 2-3 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.31% Total : 15.21% |