International Friendlies
Oct 4, 2026 3.00am
Dallas Stadium

USA vs Mexico - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

USA

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last game
Sep 30, 2026 1.00am
USA 4 - 2 Chile

Mexico

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last game
Sep 30, 2026 2.00am
Mexico 1 - 1 Peru

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Mexico win with a probability of 40.81%. A win for USA has a probability of 31.87% and a draw has a probability of 27.32%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win is 0-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.26%) and 0-2 (6.52%). The likeliest USA win is 2-1 (7.11%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.04%).

Result

USA 31.87%
Draw 27.32%
Mexico 40.81%

Both Teams to Score: 

57.59%

Goals

Over 1.5 77.44%
Under 1.5 22.56%
Over 2.5 54.2%
Under 2.5 45.8%
Over 3.5 33.51%
Under 3.5 66.49%
Over 4.5 19.85%
Under 4.5 80.15%

First Half Winner

USA 24.35%
Draw 49.86%
Mexico 25.78%

Team To Score First

USA 41.93%
No Goal 6.99%
Mexico 51.08%

Corners

Over 8 52.65%
Equal 8 12.38%
Under 8 34.98%
Over 9 40.52%
Equal 9 12.13%
Under 9 47.35%
Over 10.5 29.67%
Under 10.5 70.33%

USA Goals

Over 1.5 36.11%
Under 1.5 63.89%
Over 2.5 15.02%
Under 2.5 84.98%
Over 3.5 5.33%
Under 3.5 94.67%

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5 74.27%
Under 0.5 25.73%
Over 1.5 43.29%
Under 1.5 56.71%
Over 2.5 19.53%
Under 2.5 80.47%
Over 3.5 7.65%
Under 3.5 92.35%

Score analysis

USA 31.88%
Draw 27.32%
Mexico 40.81%
USA
2-1 @ 7.11%
1-0 @ 7.08%
2-0 @ 4.67%
3-1 @ 3.33%
3-2 @ 2.69%
3-0 @ 2.09%
Other @ 4.91%
Total : 31.88%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.04%
0-0 @ 6.99%
2-2 @ 6.29%
3-3 @ 1.58%
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 27.32%
Mexico
0-1 @ 8.5%
1-2 @ 8.26%
0-2 @ 6.52%
1-3 @ 4.05%
0-3 @ 3.23%
2-3 @ 3.02%
Other @ 7.23%
Total : 40.81%

Head to Head

International Friendlies
Oct 16, 2024 3.30am
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Soldier Field
  • Raul Jimenez 22' goal
  • Raul Jimenez 22' goal
  • Javier Aguirre 26' yellowcard
  • Javier Aguirre 26' yellowcard
  • Cesar Huerta 49' goal
  • Cesar Huerta 49' goal
  • Alejandro Zendejas 75' yellowcard
  • Alejandro Zendejas 75' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Aidan Morris 34'
  • yellowcard Aidan Morris 34'
  • yellowcard Edson Alvarez 75'
  • yellowcard Edson Alvarez 75'
CONCACAF Nations League
Mar 25, 2024 1.15am
0
2
HT : 0 1
FT AT&T Stadium
  • Johan Vasquez 55' yellowcard
  • Edson Alvarez 58' yellowcard
  • Carlos Uriel 63' yellowcard
  • Carlos Uriel 63' yellowcard
  • Santiago Gimenez 74' yellowcard
  • Santiago Gimenez 74' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Weston McKennie 27'
  • goal Tyler Adams 45'
  • goal Giovanni Reyna 63'
  • goal Giovanni Reyna 63'
CONCACAF Nations League
Jun 16, 2023 3.00am
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Allianz Stadium
  • Christian Pulisic 37' goal
  • Christian Pulisic 46' goal
  • Ricardo Pepi 78' goal
International Friendlies
Apr 20, 2023 3.00am
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Stadium
  • Jesus Ferreira 81' goal
  • goal Carlos Uriel 55'
World Cup Qualifying - North Central America
Mar 25, 2022 2.00am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Edson Alvarez 21' yellowcard
  • Henry Martin 39' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 90'+1' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Miles Robinson 9'
  • yellowcard DeAndre Yedlin 26'
  • yellowcard Timothy Weah 39'
World Cup Qualifying - North Central America
Nov 13, 2021 2.10am
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Miles Robinson 59' yellowcard
  • Zack Steffen 68' yellowcard
  • Weston McKennie 68' yellowcard
  • Christian Pulisic 74' goal
  • Weston McKennie 85' goal
  • Miles Robinson 89' redcard
  • yellowcard Luis Romo 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Luis Rodriguez 68'