Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 57.93%. A win for USA had a probability of 21.13% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.66%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest USA win was 1-2 (5.27%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.