International Friendlies
Apr 1, 2026 12.00am
Mercedes-Benz Stadium

USA vs Portugal - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

USA

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last game
Mar 28, 2026 7.30pm
USA 2 - 5 Belgium

Portugal

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last game
Mar 29, 2026 3.00am
Mexico 0 - 0 Portugal

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Portugal win with a probability of 52.8%. A win for USA has a probability of 24.62% and a draw has a probability of 22.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portugal win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (7.93%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest USA win is 2-1 (6.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.88%).

Result

USA 24.62% (-3.56)
Draw 22.58% (-1.40)
Portugal 52.8% (+4.94)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.61% (+1.07)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.7% (+1.77)
Under 1.5 17.3% (-1.76)
Over 2.5 62.29% (+2.68)
Under 2.5 37.71% (-2.68)
Over 3.5 39.73% (+2.75)
Under 3.5 60.27% (-2.75)
Over 4.5 24.87% (+2.43)
Under 4.5 75.13% (-2.43)

First Half Winner

USA 26.48% (-2.57)
Draw 39.03% (-0.61)
Portugal 34.48% (+3.18)

Team To Score First

USA 41.25% (-2.93)
No Goal 4.34% (-0.68)
Portugal 54.41% (+3.60)

Corners

Over 8 56.72% (+1.30)
Equal 8 11.58% (-0.24)
Under 8 31.7% (-1.08)
Over 9 45.05% (+1.41)
Equal 9 11.67% (-0.11)
Under 9 43.28% (-1.30)
Over 10.5 34.25% (+1.40)
Under 10.5 65.75% (-1.41)

USA Goals

Over 1.5 31.94% (-2.16)
Under 1.5 68.06% (+2.16)
Over 2.5 12.24% (-1.19)
Under 2.5 87.76% (+1.20)
Over 3.5 4.06% (-0.42)
Under 3.5 95.94% (+0.41)

Portugal Goals

Over 0.5 82.43% (+3.13)
Under 0.5 17.57% (-3.13)
Over 1.5 55.67% (+5.08)
Under 1.5 44.33% (-5.08)
Over 2.5 29.68% (+4.22)
Under 2.5 70.32% (-4.23)
Over 3.5 13.04% (+2.49)
Under 3.5 86.96% (-2.50)

Score analysis

USA 24.63%
Draw 22.59%
Portugal 52.8%
USA
2-1 @ 6.33% (-0.71)
1-0 @ 5.05% (-0.94)
2-0 @ 3.08% (-0.67)
3-1 @ 2.62% (-0.34)
3-2 @ 2.43% (-0.09)
3-0 @ 1.42% (-0.43)
Other @ 3.7% (-0.40)
Total : 24.63%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.88% (-0.80)
2-2 @ 6.3% (+0.05)
0-0 @ 4.34% (-0.68)
3-3 @ 1.71% (+0.07)
Other @ 0.36% (-0.02)
Total : 22.59%
Portugal
1-2 @ 9.82% (+0.35)
0-1 @ 7.93% (-0.14)
0-2 @ 7.44% (+0.56)
1-3 @ 5.95% (+0.63)
0-3 @ 4.99% (+0.70)
2-3 @ 3.99% (+0.37)
Other @ 12.68% (+2.50)
Total : 52.8%

Head to Head

International Friendlies
Nov 14, 2017 8.45pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Estadio Dr. Magalhaes Pessoa
  • Antunes 31' goal
  • goal Weston McKennie 21'
World Cup
Jun 22, 2014 11.00pm
2
2
HT : 0 1
FT Arena Amazonia, Manaus
  • Jermaine Jones 64' goal
  • Jermaine Jones 75' yellowcard
  • Clint Dempsey 81' goal
  • goal Nani 5'
  • goal Silvestre Varela 90'+5'