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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 43.31%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 33.04% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.49%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 43.31% | 23.65% | 33.04% |
| Both teams to score 61.86% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.01% | 39.99% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.65% | 62.36% |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.21% | 18.79% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.79% | 50.21% |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.17% | 23.83% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.99% | 58.01% |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 8.98% 1-0 @ 7.49% 2-0 @ 6.26% 3-1 @ 5% 3-2 @ 3.59% 3-0 @ 3.49% 4-1 @ 2.09% 4-2 @ 1.5% 4-0 @ 1.46% Other @ 3.47% Total : 43.31% | 1-1 @ 10.73% 2-2 @ 6.44% 0-0 @ 4.48% 3-3 @ 1.71% Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.64% | 1-2 @ 7.7% 0-1 @ 6.42% 0-2 @ 4.61% 1-3 @ 3.68% 2-3 @ 3.08% 0-3 @ 2.2% 1-4 @ 1.32% 2-4 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.93% Total : 33.04% |