Aruba national football team
CONCACAF Nations League | League C
Oct 14, 2023 at 8pm UK
Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad
US Virgin Islands national football team

Aruba
3 - 1
US Virgin Islands

Ostiana (52'), Luydens (61'), Molina (86')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Farrell (63')
Whyte (33'), Henry (60')
Coverage of the CONCACAF Nations League League C clash between Aruba and US Virgin Islands.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aruba

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: Cayman Islands 1-2 Aruba
Monday, September 11 at 9.30pm in CONCACAF Nations League

US Virgin Islands

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last Game: US Virgin Islands 2-2 Cayman Islands
Friday, September 8 at 12am in CONCACAF Nations League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aruba win with a probability of 48.26%. A win for US Virgin Islands had a probability of 26.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aruba win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest US Virgin Islands win was 0-1 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Aruba would win this match.

Result
ArubaDrawUS Virgin Islands
48.26% (0.238 0.24)24.75% (-0.056000000000001 -0.06)26.99% (-0.187 -0.19)
Both teams to score 54.41% (0.023999999999994 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.84% (0.103 0.1)48.16% (-0.108 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.68% (0.093999999999998 0.09)70.32% (-0.099000000000004 -0.1)
Aruba Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80% (0.13900000000001 0.14)20% (-0.144 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.81% (0.227 0.23)52.18% (-0.232 -0.23)
US Virgin Islands Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.01% (-0.091000000000008 -0.09)31.98% (0.086000000000002 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.55% (-0.102 -0.1)68.44% (0.097000000000008 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Aruba 48.26%
    US Virgin Islands 26.99%
    Draw 24.74%
ArubaDrawUS Virgin Islands
1-0 @ 10.29%
2-1 @ 9.44% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 8.29% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
3-1 @ 5.07% (0.033 0.03)
3-0 @ 4.45% (0.04 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.89% (0.012 0.01)
4-1 @ 2.04% (0.023 0.02)
4-0 @ 1.79% (0.024 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.16% (0.01 0.01)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 48.26%
1-1 @ 11.73% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
0-0 @ 6.4% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-2 @ 5.38% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 1.1% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 24.74%
0-1 @ 7.29% (-0.05 -0.05)
1-2 @ 6.69% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-2 @ 4.16% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.54% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.05% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.58% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 2.68%
Total : 26.99%