Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sint Maarten win with a probability of 64.09%. A win for US Virgin Islands had a probability of 18.54% and a draw had a probability of 17.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sint Maarten win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.56%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest US Virgin Islands win was 2-1 (4.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Sint Maarten in this match.