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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.39%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 1-0 (11.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
Result | ||
Birmingham City | Draw | Derby County |
30.4% | 29.21% | 40.39% |
Both teams to score 43.42% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
36.82% | 63.18% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
17.4% | 82.6% |
Birmingham City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.63% | 37.36% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.85% | 74.15% |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.32% | 30.67% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.07% | 66.92% |
Score Analysis |
Birmingham City | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 11.28% 2-1 @ 6.56% 2-0 @ 5.55% 3-1 @ 2.15% 3-0 @ 1.82% 3-2 @ 1.27% Other @ 1.75% Total : 30.4% | 1-1 @ 13.33% 0-0 @ 11.46% 2-2 @ 3.88% Other @ 0.54% Total : 29.21% | 0-1 @ 13.54% 0-2 @ 8% 1-2 @ 7.88% 0-3 @ 3.15% 1-3 @ 3.1% 2-3 @ 1.53% 0-4 @ 0.93% 1-4 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.33% Total : 40.38% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leicester CityLeicester | 44 | 30 | 4 | 10 | 86 | 39 | 47 | 94 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 44 | 27 | 9 | 8 | 80 | 37 | 43 | 90 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 43 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 85 | 53 | 32 | 89 |
4 | Southampton | 44 | 25 | 9 | 10 | 85 | 61 | 24 | 84 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 44 | 20 | 12 | 12 | 67 | 44 | 23 | 72 |
6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 44 | 21 | 9 | 14 | 77 | 61 | 16 | 72 |
7 | Hull City | 43 | 18 | 12 | 13 | 62 | 54 | 8 | 66 |
8 | Coventry CityCoventry | 42 | 17 | 12 | 13 | 66 | 52 | 14 | 63 |
9 | Middlesbrough | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 60 | 4 | 63 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 56 | 61 | -5 | 63 |
11 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 44 | 19 | 5 | 20 | 50 | 61 | -11 | 62 |
12 | Bristol City | 44 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 51 | 47 | 4 | 59 |
13 | Sunderland | 44 | 16 | 8 | 20 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 56 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 44 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 57 | 62 | -5 | 56 |
15 | Watford | 44 | 12 | 17 | 15 | 59 | 58 | 1 | 53 |
16 | Millwall | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 53 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 50 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 41 | 57 | -16 | 50 |
19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 44 | 13 | 10 | 21 | 58 | 74 | -16 | 49 |
20 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 44 | 12 | 12 | 20 | 58 | 69 | -11 | 48 |
21 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 44 | 13 | 8 | 23 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 47 |
22 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 44 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 46 |
23 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 44 | 9 | 17 | 18 | 47 | 74 | -27 | 44 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 44 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 32 | 85 | -53 | 24 |
> Championship Full Table |