World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Mar 21, 2025 9.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 2
FT Stade Larbi Zaouli
  • goal Mohamed Salah 31'
  • goal Ahmed Sayed 40'

Ethiopia vs Egypt - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Ethiopia

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Last game
Jun 9, 2024 5.00pm
Djibouti 1 - 1 Ethiopia

Egypt

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying - Africa
Last game
Jun 10, 2024 5.00pm
Guinea-Bissau 1 - 1 Egypt

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt win with a probability of 70.25%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 9.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Egypt win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (16.21%) and 0-3 (10.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.32%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 1-0 (4.73%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 16.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Egypt in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Egypt.

Result

Ethiopia 9.28% (-0.15)
Draw 20.47% (-0.20)
Egypt 70.25% (+0.34)

Both Teams to Score: 

33.65% (-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5 42.32% (+0.32)
Under 2.5 57.68% (-0.31)
Over 3.5 21.56% (+0.25)
Under 3.5 78.44% (-0.25)
Over 4.5 9.25% (+0.15)
Under 4.5 90.75% (-0.15)

Ethiopia Goals

Over 0.5 39.81% (-0.13)
Under 0.5 60.18% (+0.13)
Over 1.5 9.25% (-0.07)
Under 1.5 90.74% (+0.07)

Egypt Goals

Over 0.5 84.51% (+0.22)
Under 0.5 15.49% (-0.22)
Over 1.5 55.63% (+0.41)
Under 1.5 44.37% (-0.40)

Score analysis

Ethiopia 9.28%
Draw 20.47%
Egypt 70.24%
Ethiopia
1-0 @ 4.73% (-0.08)
2-1 @ 2.24% (-0.03)
2-0 @ 1.2% (-0.03)
Other @ 1.1%
Total : 9.28%
Draw
0-0 @ 9.32% (-0.11)
1-1 @ 8.83% (-0.08)
2-2 @ 2.09% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 20.47%
Egypt
0-1 @ 17.38% (-0.09)
0-2 @ 16.21% (+0.06)
0-3 @ 10.08% (+0.11)
1-2 @ 8.23% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 5.12% (+0.04)
0-4 @ 4.7% (+0.09)
1-4 @ 2.39% (+0.04)
0-5 @ 1.75% (+0.05)
2-3 @ 1.3% (+0.01)
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 70.24%

Head to Head

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Sep 8, 2023 5.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Cairo International Stadium
  • Mostafa Fathi 37' goal
  • Mostafa Mohamed 55' yellowcard
  • Mohamed El Shenawy 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Gatoch Panomo 90'+5'
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Jun 9, 2022 5.00pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Bingu National Stadium
  • Dawa Hotessa 21' goal
  • Gatoch Panomo 24' yellowcard
  • Shimeles Bekele 39' goal
  • Mignot Debebe 90'+1' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mohanad Mostafa Lasheen 56'
  • yellowcard Omar Kamal 75'
  • yellowcard 77'