Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Congo DR win with a probability of 52.92%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 19.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Congo DR win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.42%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.