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World Cup
Ecuador national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Sep 10, 2024 at 10pm UK
Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria
Peru national football team

Ecuador
1 - 0
Peru

Valencia (54')
Paez (57')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Cartagena (28'), Advincula (37'), Santamaria (45+1'), Lopez (61')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Ecuador and Peru, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Brazil 1-0 Ecuador
Saturday, September 7 at 2am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Peru

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Peru 1-1 Colombia
Saturday, September 7 at 2.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

We said: Ecuador 2-1 Peru

 Ecuador usually prove to be a tough team to beat in home qualifiers, and we think that they will make full use of home advantage to claim all three points in their meeting with a Peru team that has lost two of their three away matches in the current qualifying cycle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 63.09%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Peru had a probability of 13.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.58%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ecuador in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.

Result
EcuadorDrawPeru
63.09% (0.080000000000005 0.08) 22.96% (-0.116 -0.12) 13.95% (0.039 0.04)
Both teams to score 40.27% (0.369 0.37)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.25% (0.45800000000001 0.46)56.74% (-0.457 -0.46)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.31% (0.366 0.37)77.69% (-0.364 -0.36)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.41% (0.194 0.19)17.59% (-0.193 -0.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.84% (0.33600000000001 0.34)48.16% (-0.334 -0.33)
Peru Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
48.87% (0.335 0.34)51.13% (-0.334 -0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.57% (0.224 0.22)85.43% (-0.22200000000001 -0.22)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 63.08%
    Peru 13.95%
    Draw 22.96%
EcuadorDrawPeru
1-0 @ 15.62% (-0.18 -0.18)
2-0 @ 13.58% (-0.06 -0.06)
2-1 @ 9.11% (0.045 0.04)
3-0 @ 7.87% (0.012 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.28% (0.06 0.06)
4-0 @ 3.42% (0.027 0.03)
4-1 @ 2.29% (0.04 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.77% (0.037 0.04)
5-0 @ 1.19% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 2.96%
Total : 63.08%
1-1 @ 10.48% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.99% (-0.159 -0.16)
2-2 @ 3.06% (0.045 0.04)
Other @ 0.43%
Total : 22.96%
0-1 @ 6.03% (-0.047 -0.05)
1-2 @ 3.52% (0.03 0.03)
0-2 @ 2.02% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 13.95%

How you voted: Ecuador vs Peru

Ecuador
71.1%
Draw
11.1%
Peru
17.8%
90
Head to Head
Feb 2, 2022 2am
Group Stage
Peru
1-1
Ecuador
Garcia (34'), Carvallo (45+5'), Advincula (51')
Franco (28'), Caicedo (38'), Plata (63')
> Preview
Jun 23, 2021 10pm
Group Stage
Ecuador
2-2
Peru
Tapia (23' og.), Preciado (45+3')
Hincapie (57')
Lapadula (49'), Carrillo (54')
Ramos (88')
> Preview
Jun 8, 2021 10pm
Group Stage
Ecuador
1-2
Peru
Plata (90+2')
Caicedo (28'), Dominguez (79')
Cueva (63'), Advincula (88')
Advincula (22'), Lapadula (26'), Aquino (90+3')
> Preview
Sep 6, 2019 1am
International Friendlies
Peru
0-1
Ecuador

Gonzales (43'), Trauco (88')
Castillo (47')
Arreaga (22'), Estrada (27')
Nov 16, 2018 1.30am
International Friendlies
Peru
0-2
Ecuador
Valencia (47'), Valencia (74')
Orejuela (36'), Gruezo (41')
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