Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 77.68%. A draw had a probability of 13.9% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 8.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.43%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-2 (2.58%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.
