Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.36%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 22.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.19%) and 1-2 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.