Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iceland Women win with a probability of 52.19%. A win for New Zealand Women had a probability of 25.77% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iceland Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.49%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest New Zealand Women win was 1-2 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Iceland Women would win this match.