Premier League Gameweek 38
Man City
May 24, 2026 4.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Etihad Stadium
Aston Villa
  • Antoine Semenyo 23' goal
  • Rayan Cherki 58' yellowcard
  • Mateo Kovacic  59' yellowcard
  • Rayan Aït-Nouri 77' yellowcard
  • Jérémy Doku 77' yellowcard
  • Josko Gvardiol  78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Matty Cash 45'
  • yellowcard Matty Cash 46'
  • goal Ollie Watkins 47'
  • goal Ollie Watkins 61'
  • yellowcard Youri Tielemans 73'
  • yellowcard Amadou Onana 73'
  • yellowcard Pau Torres 73'
  • yellowcard John McGinn 86'

Manchester City vs Aston Villa - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Result
Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups
Injuries & Suspensions

Form, Standings, Stats

Manchester City

All competitions
Last game
May 19, 2026 7.30pm
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Man City
Goals scored
77
Top scorer
Erling Haaland

Aston Villa

All competitions
Last game
May 15, 2026 8.00pm
Aston Villa 4 - 2 Liverpool
Goals scored
56
Top scorer
Ollie Watkins

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 62.13%. A draw had a probability of 21.22% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 16.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.99%) and 1-0 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.91%) , while for a Aston Villa win it was 1-2 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.

Result

Manchester City 62.13%
Draw 21.22%
Aston Villa 16.65%

Both Teams to Score: 

56% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 81.8% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 18.2% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 59.95% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 2.5 40.05% ▼ (-0.11)
Over 3.5 37.13% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 3.5 62.87% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 4.5 23.56% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 76.44% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Manchester City 48.27% ▲ (+0.02)
Draw 35.83% ▼ (-0.02)
Aston Villa 15.9%

Team To Score First

Manchester City 63.27% ▲ (+0.05)
No Goal 4.55% ▼ (-0.01)
Aston Villa 32.18% ▼ (-0.04)

Corners

Over 8 60.1%
Equal 8 11.27%
Under 8 28.63%
Over 9 48.44% ▲ (+0.01)
Equal 9 11.67%
Under 9 39.9%
Over 10.5 37.37% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 10.5 62.64%

Manchester City Goals

Over 1.5 60.77% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 39.23% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 33.83% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 2.5 66.17% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 15.14%
Under 3.5 84.86%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5 53.87% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 0.5 46.13% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 1.5 23.22% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 76.78% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 7.43% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 2.5 92.57% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 1.96% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 3.5 98.04% ▼ (-0.01)

Score analysis

Manchester City 62.12%
Draw 21.22%
Aston Villa 16.66%
Manchester City
2-1 @ 10.16% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 9.99% ▼ (-0.03)
1-0 @ 9.76% ▼ (-0.02)
3-0 @ 6.94%
3-1 @ 6.69% ▲ (+0.02)
3-2 @ 3.69% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 14.89%
Total : 62.12%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.91% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 5.14% ▲ (+0.02)
0-0 @ 4.55% ▼ (-0.01)
3-3 @ 1.37%
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 21.22%
Aston Villa
1-2 @ 5.01% ▲ (+0.01)
0-1 @ 3.89% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 1.95% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 1.74%
2-3 @ 1.65%
Other @ 1.71% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 16.66%

Head to Head

Premier League
Aston Villa
Oct 26, 2025 2.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Man City
Premier League Gameweek 34
Man City
Apr 22, 2025 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 1
FT Etihad Stadium
Aston Villa
  • Bernardo Silva 7' goal
  • Pep Guardiola 18' yellowcard
  • Josko Gvardiol 70' yellowcard
  • Matheus Nunes 77' yellowcard
  • Bernardo Silva 86' yellowcard
  • Matheus Nunes 90'+4' goal
  • goal Marcus Rashford 18'
  • yellowcard Lucas Digne 35'
  • yellowcard Morgan Rogers 50'
  • yellowcard Ollie Watkins 85'
Premier League Gameweek 17
Aston Villa
Dec 21, 2024 12.30pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Villa Park
Man City
  • Jhon Duran 16' goal
  • Matty Cash 37' yellowcard
  • Emiliano Martinez 45'+2' yellowcard
  • Morgan Rogers 65' goal
  • John McGinn 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Rico Lewis 47'
  • yellowcard Josko Gvardiol 84'
  • yellowcard Jack Grealish 87'
  • goal Phil Foden 90'+3'
Premier League Gameweek 31
Man City
Apr 3, 2024 8.15pm
4
1
HT : 2 1
FT Etihad Stadium
Aston Villa
  • Rodri 11' goal
  • Jack Grealish 32' yellowcard
  • Phil Foden 45'+1' goal
  • Phil Foden 62' goal
  • Phil Foden 69' goal
  • goal Jhon Duran 20'
  • yellowcard Douglas Luiz 38'
  • yellowcard Calum Chambers 90'+4'
Premier League Gameweek 15
Aston Villa
Dec 6, 2023 8.15pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Villa Park
Man City
  • Ollie Watkins 60' yellowcard
  • Leon Bailey 74' goal
  • Boubacar Kamara 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard John Stones 45'
  • yellowcard Rico Lewis 53'
Premier League Gameweek 23
Man City
Feb 12, 2023 4.30pm
3
1
HT : 3 0
FT
Aston Villa
  • Rodri 4' goal
  • Ilkay Gundogan 39' goal
  • Riyad Mahrez 45'+1' goal
  • goal Ollie Watkins 61'

Form Data

Bournemouth 1 - 1 Man City
Chelsea 0 - 1 Man City
Man City 3 - 0 Crystal Palace
Man City 3 - 0 Brentford
Everton 3 - 3 Man City
Man City 2 - 1 Southampton
Freiburg 0 - 3 Aston Villa
Aston Villa 4 - 2 Liverpool
Burnley 2 - 2 Aston Villa
Aston Villa 4 - 0 Nott'm Forest
Aston Villa 1 - 2 Spurs
Nott'm Forest 1 - 0 Aston Villa

Build-up

News
How to watch
Predicted Lineups