Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fulham win with a probability of 40.64%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 36.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fulham win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.88%) and 2-0 (5.34%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (8.11%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.