Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 48.68%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 27.4% and a draw had a probability of 23.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (6.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.