Premier League Gameweek 27
Aston Villa
Feb 21, 2026 3.00pm
Villa Park
Leeds

Aston Villa vs Leeds United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions
Last game
Feb 11, 2026 7.30pm
Aston Villa 1 - 0 Brighton
Goals scored
35
Top scorer
Ollie Watkins

Leeds United

All competitions
Last game
Feb 10, 2026 7.30pm
Chelsea 0 - 0 Leeds
Goals scored
32
Top scorer
Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Aston Villa win with a probability of 52.34%. A draw has a probability of 24.53% and a win for Leeds United has a probability of 23.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (9.49%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.26%) , while for a Leeds United win it is 0-1 (6.46%).

Result

Aston Villa 52.34% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 24.53%
Leeds United 23.16% ▼ (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.09% ▼ (-0.03)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.65% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 25.35% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 50.56%
Under 2.5 49.44%
Over 3.5 29.39%
Under 3.5 70.61%
Over 4.5 16.82%
Under 4.5 83.18%

First Half Winner

Aston Villa 36.5%
Draw 41.1%
Leeds United 22.41%

Team To Score First

Aston Villa 54.65% ▼ (-0.01)
No Goal 7.09% ▲ (+0.01)
Leeds United 38.26%

Corners

Over 8 58.46%
Equal 8 11.54%
Under 8 30%
Over 9 46.64%
Equal 9 11.83%
Under 9 41.54%
Over 10.5 35.53%
Under 10.5 64.47%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 1.5 48.67% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 1.5 51.33% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 22.67% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 77.33% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 8.44% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 91.56% ▼ (-0.01)

Leeds United Goals

Over 0.5 58.27% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 0.5 41.73% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 1.5 25.86% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 74.14% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 8.81% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 91.19% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 3.5 2.58%
Under 3.5 97.42%

Score analysis

Aston Villa 52.35%
Draw 24.54%
Leeds United 23.14%
Aston Villa
1-0 @ 11.83% ▲ (+0.03)
2-0 @ 9.49%
2-1 @ 9.49%
3-1 @ 5.2%
3-0 @ 5.05% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.99%
Other @ 8.3%
Total : 52.35%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.26% ▼ (-0.03)
0-0 @ 7.09% ▲ (+0.01)
2-2 @ 5.06% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.14% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 24.54%
Leeds United
0-1 @ 6.46% ▼ (-0.01)
1-2 @ 5.67%
0-2 @ 3.33% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.32% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.96% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 2.44% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 23.14%

Head to Head

Premier League
Leeds
Nov 23, 2025 2.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Aston Villa
Premier League Gameweek 20
Aston Villa
Jan 13, 2023 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT
Leeds
  • Leon Bailey 3' goal
  • Emiliano Buendia 64' goal
  • goal Patrick Bamford 83'
Premier League Gameweek 9
Leeds
Oct 2, 2022 4.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Aston Villa
Club Friendlies 1
Aston Villa
Jul 17, 2022 5.35am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Leeds
  • Danny Ings 63' goal
  • John McGinn 70' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Archie Gray 67'
Premier League Gameweek 20
Leeds
Mar 10, 2022 7.45pm
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT
Aston Villa
  • Robin Koch 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Joe Gelhardt 67' yellowcard
  • Junior Firpo 81' yellowcard
  • Daniel James 86' yellowcard
  • Raphinha 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ollie Watkins 17'
  • goal Philippe Coutinho 22'
  • yellowcard Tyrone Mings 47'
  • yellowcard Douglas Luiz 62'
  • goal Matty Cash 65'
  • goal Calum Chambers 73'
Premier League Gameweek 24
Aston Villa
Feb 9, 2022 8.00pm
3
3
HT : 3 2
FT
Leeds
  • Philippe Coutinho 30' goal
  • Jacob Ramsey 38' goal
  • Jacob Ramsey 43' goal
  • Ezri Konsa 70' yellowcard
  • Ezri Konsa 87' redcard
  • Matty Cash 90' yellowcard
  • goal Daniel James 9'
  • yellowcard Stuart Dallas 45'
  • goal Daniel James 45'+2'
  • goal Diego Llorente 63'
  • yellowcard Daniel James 80'
  • yellowcard Rodrigo 90'+7'

Form Data

Aston Villa 1 - 3 Newcastle
Aston Villa 1 - 0 Brighton
Bournemouth 1 - 1 Aston Villa
Aston Villa 0 - 0 Brentford
Aston Villa 3 - 2 Salzburg
Newcastle 0 - 0 Aston Villa
Birmingham 0 - 0 Leeds
Chelsea 0 - 0 Leeds
Leeds 3 - 1 Nott'm Forest
Leeds 0 - 4 Arsenal
Everton 1 - 1 Leeds
Leeds 0 - 0 Fulham

Build-up

Feature