Premier League
Feb 21, 2026 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Villa Park
  • Ross Barkley 61' yellowcard
  • Jadon Sancho 61' yellowcard
  • Tammy Abraham 75' yellowcard
  • Andrés García 87' yellowcard
  • Lamare Bogarde 87' yellowcard
  • Tammy Abraham 88' goal
  • goal Anton Stach 31'
  • yellowcard Jaka Bijol 45'
  • yellowcard Jaka Bijol 46'
  • yellowcard Lukas Nmecha 73'
  • yellowcard Sean Longstaff 83'

Aston Villa vs Leeds United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions
Last game
Feb 11, 2026 7.30pm
Aston Villa 1 - 0 Brighton
Goals scored
42
Top scorer
Ollie Watkins

Leeds United

All competitions
Last game
Feb 10, 2026 7.30pm
Chelsea 2 - 2 Leeds
Goals scored
37
Top scorer
Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 52.28%. A draw had a probability of 24.53% and a win for Leeds United had a probability of 23.19%.

The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.28%) , while for a Leeds United win it was 0-1 (6.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.

Result

Aston Villa 52.28%
Draw 24.53%
Leeds United 23.19%

Both Teams to Score: 

52.12%

Goals

Over 1.5 74.65% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 25.35% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 50.56%
Under 2.5 49.44%
Over 3.5 29.39%
Under 3.5 70.61%
Over 4.5 16.8%
Under 4.5 83.2%

First Half Winner

Aston Villa 36.5%
Draw 41.1%
Leeds United 22.41%

Team To Score First

Aston Villa 54.66%
No Goal 7.08%
Leeds United 38.26%

Corners

Over 8 58.46%
Equal 8 11.54%
Under 8 30%
Over 9 46.64%
Equal 9 11.83%
Under 9 41.54%
Over 10.5 35.53%
Under 10.5 64.47%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 1.5 48.62% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 51.38% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 22.62% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 77.38% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 8.41%
Under 3.5 91.59%

Leeds United Goals

Over 0.5 58.32%
Under 0.5 41.68%
Over 1.5 25.88%
Under 1.5 74.12%
Over 2.5 8.83%
Under 2.5 91.17%
Over 3.5 2.58%
Under 3.5 97.42%

Score analysis

Aston Villa 52.28%
Draw 24.53%
Leeds United 23.19%
Aston Villa
1-0 @ 11.8%
2-1 @ 9.49%
2-0 @ 9.48%
3-1 @ 5.2%
3-0 @ 5.04% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.99%
Other @ 8.28%
Total : 52.28%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.28%
0-0 @ 7.08%
2-2 @ 5.06%
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 24.53%
Leeds United
0-1 @ 6.47%
1-2 @ 5.67%
0-2 @ 3.33%
1-3 @ 2.33%
2-3 @ 1.97%
Other @ 2.45%
Total : 23.19%

Head to Head

Premier League
Nov 23, 2025 2.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Premier League Gameweek 20
Jan 13, 2023 8.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Leon Bailey 3' goal
  • Emiliano Buendia 64' goal
  • goal Patrick Bamford 83'
Premier League Gameweek 9
Oct 2, 2022 4.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Club Friendlies 1
Jul 17, 2022 5.35am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Danny Ings 63' goal
  • John McGinn 70' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Archie Gray 67'
Premier League Gameweek 20
Mar 10, 2022 7.45pm
0
3
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Robin Koch 45'+1' yellowcard
  • Joe Gelhardt 67' yellowcard
  • Junior Firpo 81' yellowcard
  • Daniel James 86' yellowcard
  • Raphinha 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ollie Watkins 17'
  • goal Philippe Coutinho 22'
  • yellowcard Tyrone Mings 47'
  • yellowcard Douglas Luiz 62'
  • goal Matty Cash 65'
  • goal Calum Chambers 73'
Premier League Gameweek 24
Feb 9, 2022 8.00pm
3
3
HT : 3 2
FT
  • Philippe Coutinho 30' goal
  • Jacob Ramsey 38' goal
  • Jacob Ramsey 43' goal
  • Ezri Konsa 70' yellowcard
  • Ezri Konsa 87' redcard
  • Matty Cash 90' yellowcard
  • goal Daniel James 9'
  • yellowcard Stuart Dallas 45'
  • goal Daniel James 45'+2'
  • goal Diego Llorente 63'
  • yellowcard Daniel James 80'
  • yellowcard Rodrigo 90'+7'

Build-up

News
Predicted Lineups