Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 51.8%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 26.28% and a draw had a probability of 21.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.39%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 0-1 (6.16%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.