Europa League
Jan 29, 2026 8.00pm
3
2
HT : 0 2
FT Villa Park
  • Morgan Rogers 35' yellowcard
  • Matty Cash 46' yellowcard
  • Morgan Rogers 64' goal
  • Jamaldeen Jimoh 66' yellowcard
  • Ezri Konsa 66' yellowcard
  • Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba 66' yellowcard
  • 66' yellowcard
  • Jamaldeen Jimoh 67' yellowcard
  • Tyrone Mings 76' goal
  • Kadan Young 78' yellowcard
  • Jamaldeen Jimoh 87' goal
  • Jamaldeen Jimoh-Aloba 87' goal
  • goal Karim Konate 33'
  • goal Karim Konaté 33' (OG)
  • yellowcard Moussa Kounfolo Yeo 46'
  • yellowcard Moussa Yeo 46'
  • goal Moussa Kounfolo Yeo 49'
  • goal Moussa Yeo 49'
  • yellowcard Clement Bischoff 73'
  • yellowcard Karim Onisiwo 73'
  • yellowcard 73'
  • yellowcard Maurits Kjaergaard 88'
  • yellowcard Oliver Lukic 88'
  • yellowcard Maurits Kjærgaard 88'
  • yellowcard Oliver Lukić 88'

Aston Villa vs Red Bull Salzburg - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview
Predicted Lineups

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions
Last game
Jan 22, 2026 5.45pm
Fenerbahce 0 - 1 Aston Villa

Red Bull Salzburg

All competitions
Last game
Jan 22, 2026 8.00pm
Salzburg 3 - 1 Basel

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 51.8%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 26.28% and a draw had a probability of 21.92%.

The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.39%) and 2-1 (8.85%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 0-1 (6.16%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.

Result

Aston Villa 51.8%
Draw 21.92%
Red Bull Salzburg 26.28%

Both Teams to Score: 

50.85%

Goals

Over 1.5 76.5% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 23.5% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 53.56%
Under 2.5 46.44%
Over 3.5 31.58%
Under 3.5 68.42%
Over 4.5 19.45% (-0.02)
Under 4.5 80.55% (+0.01)

First Half Winner

Aston Villa 34.32%
Draw 41.3%
Red Bull Salzburg 24.38%

Team To Score First

Aston Villa 52.8%
No Goal 6.52%
Red Bull Salzburg 40.68%

Corners

Over 8 55.24%
Equal 8 10.97%
Under 8 33.79%
Over 9 44.3%
Equal 9 10.94%
Under 9 44.76%
Over 10.5 34.22%
Under 10.5 65.78%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 1.5 48.72% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 51.28% (+0.01)
Over 2.5 23.67% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 76.33% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 9.91% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 90.09% (+0.02)

Red Bull Salzburg Goals

Over 0.5 57.93%
Under 0.5 42.07%
Over 1.5 28.1%
Under 1.5 71.9%
Over 2.5 11.36%
Under 2.5 88.64%
Over 3.5 3.82%
Under 3.5 96.18%

Score analysis

Aston Villa 51.79%
Draw 21.92%
Red Bull Salzburg 26.29%
Aston Villa
1-0 @ 10.82%
2-0 @ 9.39%
2-1 @ 8.85%
3-0 @ 5.46%
3-1 @ 4.86%
3-2 @ 2.53%
Other @ 9.88% (-0.01)
Total : 51.79%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.96%
0-0 @ 6.52%
2-2 @ 4.5%
Other @ 0.03%
Total : 21.92%
Red Bull Salzburg
0-1 @ 6.16%
1-2 @ 6.12%
0-2 @ 3.59%
1-3 @ 2.76%
2-3 @ 2.31%
0-3 @ 1.56%
Other @ 3.79%
Total : 26.29%

Build-up

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