Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Bull Salzburg win with a probability of 47.29%. A win for Basel had a probability of 33.17% and a draw had a probability of 19.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.2%) and 3-1 (5.62%). The likeliest Basel win was 1-2 (6.62%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.