Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 50.83%. A win for Servette had a probability of 26.9% and a draw had a probability of 22.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.39%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Servette win was 1-2 (6.65%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.