Premier League Gameweek 29
Mar 4, 2026 7.30pm
Villa Park

Aston Villa vs Chelsea - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 3.00pm
Aston Villa 1 - 1 Leeds
Goals scored
38
Top scorer
Ollie Watkins

Chelsea

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 3.00pm
Chelsea 1 - 1 Burnley
Goals scored
48
Top scorer
Joao Pedro

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Chelsea win with a probability of 43.69%. A win for Aston Villa has a probability of 32.6% and a draw has a probability of 23.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (7.22%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Aston Villa win is 2-1 (7.57%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (10.23%).

Result

Aston Villa 32.6%
Draw 23.71%
Chelsea 43.69%

Both Teams to Score: 

61.21%

Goals

Over 1.5 81.67%
Under 1.5 18.33%
Over 2.5 61.05%
Under 2.5 38.95%
Over 3.5 38.65%
Under 3.5 61.35%
Over 4.5 23.13%
Under 4.5 76.87%

First Half Winner

Aston Villa 27.45%
Draw 40.08%
Chelsea 32.48%

Team To Score First

Aston Villa 43.68%
No Goal 4.8%
Chelsea 51.52%

Corners

Over 8 52.66%
Equal 8 11.85%
Under 8 35.49%
Over 9 41.06%
Equal 9 11.6%
Under 9 47.34%
Over 10.5 30.62%
Under 10.5 69.38%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 1.5 38.99%
Under 1.5 61.01%
Over 2.5 16.34%
Under 2.5 83.66%
Over 3.5 5.71%
Under 3.5 94.29%

Chelsea Goals

Over 0.5 76.75%
Under 0.5 23.25%
Over 1.5 48.08%
Under 1.5 51.92%
Over 2.5 23.32%
Under 2.5 76.68%
Over 3.5 8.97%
Under 3.5 91.03%

Score analysis

Aston Villa 32.61%
Draw 23.71%
Chelsea 43.69%
Aston Villa
2-1 @ 7.57%
1-0 @ 6.32%
2-0 @ 4.46%
3-1 @ 3.65%
3-2 @ 2.93%
3-0 @ 2.26%
Other @ 5.42%
Total : 32.61%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.23%
2-2 @ 6.6%
0-0 @ 4.8%
3-3 @ 1.79%
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 23.71%
Chelsea
1-2 @ 9.31%
0-1 @ 7.22%
0-2 @ 5.92%
1-3 @ 5.28%
2-3 @ 4.02%
0-3 @ 3.26%
Other @ 8.68%
Total : 43.69%

Head to Head

Premier League
Dec 27, 2025 5.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Joao Pedro 37' goal
  • Reece James 57' yellowcard
  • Trevoh Chalobah 68' yellowcard
  • Trevoh Chalobah 69' yellowcard
  • Liam Delap 71' yellowcard
  • Moises Caicedo 71' yellowcard
  • Enzo Fernandez 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Matty Cash 30'
  • yellowcard 57'
  • yellowcard Morgan Rogers 57'
  • goal Ollie Watkins 63'
  • yellowcard Boubacar Kamara 78'
  • goal Ollie Watkins 84'
Premier League Gameweek 26
Feb 22, 2025 5.30pm
2
1
HT : 0 1
FT Villa Park
  • Marco Asensio 57' goal
  • John McGinn 69' yellowcard
  • Marco Asensio 89' goal
  • goal Enzo Fernandez 9'
  • yellowcard Enzo Fernandez 56'
  • yellowcard Christopher Nkunku 72'
  • yellowcard Moises Caicedo 89'
Premier League Gameweek 13
Dec 1, 2024 1.30pm
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Stamford Bridge
  • Nicolas Jackson 7' goal
  • Enzo Fernandez 36' goal
  • Cole Palmer 83' goal
  • Noni Madueke 85' yellowcard
  • Joao Felix 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jaden Philogene-Bidace 54'
  • yellowcard Matty Cash 61'
Premier League Gameweek 35
Apr 27, 2024 8.00pm
2
2
HT : 2 0
FT Villa Park
  • Marc Cucurella 4' goal
  • Morgan Rogers 42' goal
  • Douglas Luiz 49' yellowcard
  • Morgan Rogers 64' yellowcard
  • Leon Bailey 66' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Moises Caicedo 49'
  • goal Noni Madueke 62'
  • goal Conor Gallagher 81'
  • yellowcard Mykhaylo Mudryk 82'
  • yellowcard Thiago Silva 87'
  • yellowcard Benoit Badiashile 90'+10'
  • yellowcard Noni Madueke 90'+10'
FA Cup
Feb 7, 2024 8.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 2
FT Villa Park
  • Diego Carlos 38' yellowcard
  • Moussa Diaby 90'+1' goal
  • goal Conor Gallagher 11'
  • goal Nicolas Jackson 21'
  • goal Enzo Fernandez 54'
  • yellowcard Enzo Fernandez 55'
  • yellowcard Djordje Petrovic 76'
FA Cup
Jan 26, 2024 7.45pm
0
0
HT : 0 1
FT Stamford Bridge
  • Thiago Silva 9' yellowcard
  • goal Douglas Luiz 12'
  • yellowcard Youri Tielemans 46'