Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 38.94%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 36.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.03%) and 0-2 (5.5%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 2-1 (8.13%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.