Europa League
May 7, 2026 8.00pm
4
0
HT : 1 0
FT Villa Park
  • Ollie Watkins 36' goal
  • Emiliano Buendía 58' yellowcard
  • Lamare Bogarde 74' yellowcard
  • John McGinn 77' goal
  • John McGinn 80' goal
  • Jadon Sancho 86' yellowcard
  • Tyrone Mings 89' yellowcard
  • Leon Bailey 90' yellowcard
  • Douglas Luiz 90' yellowcard
  • Tyrone Mings 90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ryan Yates  46'
  • yellowcard Dilane Bakwa 71'
  • yellowcard Lorenzo Lucca 71'
  • yellowcard Murillo 88'
  • yellowcard Jimmy Sinclair 88'

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Result
Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Aston Villa

All competitions
Europa League
Last game
Apr 30, 2026 8.00pm
Nott'm Forest 1 - 0 Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest

All competitions
Europa League
Last game
Apr 30, 2026 8.00pm
Nott'm Forest 1 - 0 Aston Villa

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 49.23%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 27.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 1-2 (6.8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%).

Result

Aston Villa 49.23%
Draw 23.64%
Nottingham Forest 27.16%

Both Teams to Score: 

58.28%

Goals

Over 1.5 79.08% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 20.92% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 56.85%
Under 2.5 43.12% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 34.59% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 65.41% (-0.04)
Over 4.5 20.23% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 79.77% (-0.03)

First Half Winner

Aston Villa 38.02%
Draw 39.4%
Nottingham Forest 22.58%

Team To Score First

Aston Villa 57.92%
No Goal 5.35%
Nottingham Forest 36.73%

Corners

Over 8 61.11%
Equal 8 10.98%
Under 8 27.92%
Over 9 49.63%
Equal 9 11.48%
Under 9 38.89%
Over 10.5 38.6%
Under 10.5 61.4%

Aston Villa Goals

Over 1.5 49.81% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 50.19% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 24.28% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 75.72% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 9.7% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 90.3% (-0.02)

Nottingham Forest Goals

Over 0.5 63.61% (+0.01)
Under 0.5 36.39% (-0.01)
Over 1.5 31.74% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 68.26% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 11.73% (+0.01)
Under 2.5 88.27% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 3.64% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 96.36% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Aston Villa 49.23%
Draw 23.65%
Nottingham Forest 27.16%
Aston Villa
1-0 @ 9.35%
2-1 @ 9.35% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 7.65%
3-1 @ 5.46% (+0.01)
3-0 @ 4.52% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 3.34%
Other @ 9.56% (+0.01)
Total : 49.23%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.8%
2-2 @ 6.1% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 5.35%
3-3 @ 1.26%
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 23.65%
Nottingham Forest
1-2 @ 6.8% (-0.01)
0-1 @ 6.26%
0-2 @ 3.77%
1-3 @ 2.82% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.43%
0-3 @ 1.58% (-0.02)
Other @ 3.5% (+0.01)
Total : 27.16%

Head to Head

Europa League
Apr 30, 2026 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT The City Ground
  • Chris Wood  71' yellowcard
  • Zach Abbott 75' yellowcard
  • Ryan Yates  90' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Lamare Bogarde 55'
  • yellowcard Douglas Luiz 78'
  • yellowcard Douglas Luiz 79'
  • yellowcard Ian Maatsen 79'
  • yellowcard Jadon Sancho 79'
Premier League
Apr 12, 2026 2.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT The City Ground
  • Neco Williams 38' goal
  • Chris Wood  65' yellowcard
  • Nicolás Domínguez 84' yellowcard
  • Ryan Yates  89' yellowcard
  • Ola Aina  89' yellowcard
  • Dan Ndoye 89' yellowcard
  • goal Murillo 23' (OG)
  • yellowcard Douglas Luiz 77'
  • yellowcard Emiliano Buendía 78'
  • yellowcard Ian Maatsen 78'
  • yellowcard Tammy Abraham 87'
  • yellowcard Andrés García 90'+1'
Premier League Gameweek 20
Jan 3, 2026 12.30pm
3
1
HT : 1 0
FT Villa Park
  • Ollie Watkins 45'+1' goal
  • John McGinn 49' goal
  • Jadon Sancho 69' yellowcard
  • Lucas Digne 69' yellowcard
  • John McGinn 73' goal
  • Lamare Bogarde 83' yellowcard
  • Donyell Malen 83' yellowcard
  • Andrés García 90' yellowcard
  • goal Morgan Gibbs-White 61'
  • yellowcard James McAtee 69'
  • yellowcard Nicolò Savona 69'
  • yellowcard Matz Sels 78'
  • yellowcard Douglas Luiz 83'
  • yellowcard Arnaud Kalimuendo 83'
Premier League Gameweek 31
Apr 5, 2025 5.30pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Villa Park
  • Morgan Rogers 13' goal
  • Donyell Malen 15' goal
  • Marco Asensio 51' yellowcard
  • Emiliano Martinez 86' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Morato 49'
  • goal Jota Silva 57'
  • yellowcard Jota Silva 73'
Premier League Gameweek 16
Dec 14, 2024 5.30pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT The City Ground
  • Nikola Milenkovic 87' goal
  • Anthony Elanga 90'+3' goal
  • goal Jhon Duran 63'
  • yellowcard Jhon Duran 70'
Premier League Gameweek 26
Feb 24, 2024 3.00pm
4
2
HT : 3 1
FT Villa Park
  • Ollie Watkins 4' goal
  • Douglas Luiz 29' goal
  • Douglas Luiz 39' goal
  • Alex Moreno 57' yellowcard
  • Leon Bailey 61' goal
  • yellowcard Murillo 15'
  • yellowcard Felipe 45'
  • goal Morgan Gibbs-White 48'
  • goal Moussa Niakhate 45'+5'

Build-up

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