Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 44.9%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Aston Villa win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.28%) and 0-2 (6.17%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 2-1 (7.31%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.