Europa League final: Two stats suggest an Aston Villa victory over Freiburg in dramatic style could be on the cards

Two statistics suggest that Aston Villa could record a late victory over Freiburg in the Europa League final.

The Premier League club make the trip to Istanbul for Wednesday's showpiece having already secured qualification for next season's Champions League.

Unai Emery will be bidding to bolster an already sensational record in the Europa League, but Freiburg, as identified by Sports Mole, have a number of players who could prove to be difference-makers for the Bundesliga outfit.

If Aston Villa are able to prevail in Turkey, they will be extending a streak that has lasted since the 1974-75 campaign.

While Freiburg will back themselves to emerge victorious in their first-ever European final, the statistics suggest that Aston Villa could win in dramatic circumstances.

The stats that support Aston Villa beating Freiburg

If Freiburg score twice on Wednesday night, they will enter the top three for total goals scored by a German club in a single Europa League campaign since 2009-10.

They have also conceded just 10 goals across their 14 matches, the only time that they have shipped more than once in a game being against Braga in the first leg of their semi-final tie.

However, Freiburg have conceded five times - exactly half of their total for the 2025-26 competition - in the 76th minute or beyond.

Meanwhile, Aston Villa have scored eight goals in the 76th minute or beyond. Five of those efforts have come in knockout ties.

Freiburg have also gone a total of nine matches across all competitions without keeping a clean sheet, a run that has lasted since a 1-0 victory away at Mainz 05 on April 12.

There have been just two shutouts during a 21-game period, while Freiburg conceded 57 goals across 34 Bundesliga games in 2025-26.

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