Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Toronto | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 42.63% | 25.85% | 31.53% |
| Both teams to score 53.64% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.56% | 50.44% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.63% | 72.37% |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.5% | 23.51% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.46% | 57.54% |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.13% | 29.87% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.03% | 65.97% |
| Score Analysis |
| Toronto | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 1-0 @ 10.16% 2-1 @ 8.89% 2-0 @ 7.36% 3-1 @ 4.29% 3-0 @ 3.55% 3-2 @ 2.59% 4-1 @ 1.55% 4-0 @ 1.29% 4-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.99% Total : 42.62% | 1-1 @ 12.28% 0-0 @ 7.02% 2-2 @ 5.37% 3-3 @ 1.04% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.84% | 0-1 @ 8.48% 1-2 @ 7.42% 0-2 @ 5.13% 1-3 @ 2.99% 2-3 @ 2.16% 0-3 @ 2.06% 1-4 @ 0.9% Other @ 2.38% Total : 31.53% |