Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 63.09%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Peru had a probability of 13.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.58%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ecuador in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.