Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 68.05%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 10.82%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.14%) and 3-0 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.43%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (5.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Alaves |
| 68.05% | 21.14% | 10.82% |
| Both teams to score 36.79% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.55% | 56.45% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.54% | 77.46% |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.2% | 15.8% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.05% | 44.95% |
| Alaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 43.7% | 56.3% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.36% | 88.64% |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Alaves |
| 1-0 @ 16.41% 2-0 @ 15.14% 3-0 @ 9.32% 2-1 @ 8.7% 3-1 @ 5.35% 4-0 @ 4.3% 4-1 @ 2.47% 5-0 @ 1.59% 3-2 @ 1.54% 5-1 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.32% Total : 68.04% | 1-1 @ 9.43% 0-0 @ 8.89% 2-2 @ 2.5% Other @ 0.32% Total : 21.14% | 0-1 @ 5.11% 1-2 @ 2.71% 0-2 @ 1.47% Other @ 1.53% Total : 10.82% |