Euro 2020

European Championship | Group Stage

Jun 16, 2021 at 2pm UK

Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Finland
0 - 1
Russia

Kamara (22'), O'Shaughnessy (90')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Miranchuk (45+2')
Barinov (27'), Ozdoyev (34'), Dzhikiya (88')

Reaction

Russia's Aleksei Miranchuk celebrates scoring against Finland at Euro 2020 on June 16, 2021

Aleksei Miranchuk: 'Result all that mattered'

Aleksei Miranchuk scored the winner against Finland.

Jun 16, 17:32

The Match

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 46.04%. A win for Finland had a probability of 29.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.18%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Finland win was 2-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia would win this match.

Result
Finland	Draw	Russia
29.52%	24.44%	46.04%

Both teams to score 57.25%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.74%

45.26%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.4%

67.6%

Finland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.36%

28.64%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.55%

64.44%

Russia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.23%

19.77%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.18%

51.82%

Score Analysis

Finland 29.52%

Russia 46.04%

Draw 24.44%

Finland	Draw	Russia
2-1 @ 7.18% 1-0 @ 7.08% 2-0 @ 4.43% 3-1 @ 2.99% 3-2 @ 2.42% 3-0 @ 1.85% 4-1 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.64% Total : 29.52%	1-1 @ 11.47% 2-2 @ 5.82% 0-0 @ 5.66% 3-3 @ 1.31% Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.44%	1-2 @ 9.3% 0-1 @ 9.18% 0-2 @ 7.44% 1-3 @ 5.03% 0-3 @ 4.02% 2-3 @ 3.14% 1-4 @ 2.04% 0-4 @ 1.63% 2-4 @ 1.27% Other @ 3% Total : 46.04%