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UEFA Conference League

Conference League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 11, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Kalevi Keskstaadioni kunstmuru

Tallinna Kalev
1 - 2
Urartu

Toomas Teevali (11')
Klavan (79'), Sinilaid (83')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Movsesyan (28', 77')
Gilmore (39'), Aghasaryan (90+1')
Coverage of the Conference League First Qualifying Round clash between Tallinna Kalev and Urartu.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tallinna Kalev

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Urartu

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Urartu 2-3 SSC Farul
Thursday, August 3 at 5pm in Europa Conference League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Urartu win with a probability of 60.25%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Tallinna Kalev had a probability of 19.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Urartu win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.42%) and 0-1 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.03%), while for a Tallinna Kalev win it was 2-1 (5.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Urartu in this match.

Result
Tallinna KalevDrawUrartu
19.59% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)20.16% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)60.25% (0.025000000000006 0.03)
Both teams to score 60.8% (0.069000000000003 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.57% (0.093999999999994 0.09)35.42% (-0.091999999999999 -0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.54% (0.104 0.1)57.46% (-0.103 -0.1)
Tallinna Kalev Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.68% (0.051000000000002 0.05)31.32% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.31% (0.058999999999997 0.06)67.68% (-0.058000000000007 -0.06)
Urartu Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.52% (0.036000000000001 0.04)11.47% (-0.036 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.69% (0.078000000000003 0.08)36.31% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)
Score Analysis
    Tallinna Kalev 19.59%
    Urartu 60.25%
    Draw 20.16%
Tallinna KalevDrawUrartu
2-1 @ 5.24% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-0 @ 4.17% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-0 @ 2.42% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.2% (0.0050000000000003 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.03% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 0.94%
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 19.59%
1-1 @ 9.03% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.68% (0.0049999999999999 0)
0-0 @ 3.59% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.59% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 20.16%
1-2 @ 9.78% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 8.42% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
0-1 @ 7.78% (-0.026000000000001 -0.03)
1-3 @ 7.06% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
0-3 @ 6.08% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-3 @ 4.1% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-4 @ 3.82% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
0-4 @ 3.29% (0.004 0)
2-4 @ 2.22% (0.008 0.01)
1-5 @ 1.65% (0.006 0.01)
0-5 @ 1.43% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-5 @ 0.96% (0.005 0.01)
Other @ 3.66%
Total : 60.25%