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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ win with a probability of 47.41%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 29.36% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.84%) and 0-2 (6.93%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 29.36% | 23.24% | 47.41% |
| Both teams to score 61.39% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.24% | 39.76% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.88% | 62.12% |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.02% | 25.98% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.01% | 60.99% |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.94% | 17.06% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.77% | 47.23% |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 7.12% 1-0 @ 5.97% 2-0 @ 4.03% 3-1 @ 3.2% 3-2 @ 2.83% 3-0 @ 1.81% 4-1 @ 1.08% 4-2 @ 0.95% Other @ 2.37% Total : 29.36% | 1-1 @ 10.56% 2-2 @ 6.3% 0-0 @ 4.43% 3-3 @ 1.67% Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.23% | 1-2 @ 9.34% 0-1 @ 7.84% 0-2 @ 6.93% 1-3 @ 5.51% 0-3 @ 4.08% 2-3 @ 3.71% 1-4 @ 2.43% 0-4 @ 1.81% 2-4 @ 1.64% Other @ 4.12% Total : 47.41% |