Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ win with a probability of 47.41%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 29.36% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.84%) and 0-2 (6.93%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
