Penarol
4 - 1
Cerro Largo

A (4', 43'), Torres (30'), Ferreira (60' og.)
Abascal (19')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Estol (20')
Estol (3'), Etcheverry (54'), Beltran (63'), Brasil (64'), Baez (74'), Nunez (87')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Penarol and Cerro Largo.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 54.24%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 22.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.

Result
Penarol	Draw	Cerro Largo
54.24%	23.62%	22.14%

Both teams to score 52.87%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.26%

47.74%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.07%

69.93%

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.5%

17.5%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.99%

48.01%

Cerro Largo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.08%

35.92%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.31%

72.7%

Score Analysis

Penarol 54.23%

Cerro Largo 22.14%

Draw 23.61%

Penarol	Draw	Cerro Largo
1-0 @ 10.95% 2-1 @ 9.78% 2-0 @ 9.55% 3-1 @ 5.68% 3-0 @ 5.55% 3-2 @ 2.91% 4-1 @ 2.48% 4-0 @ 2.42% 4-2 @ 1.27% Other @ 3.66% Total : 54.23%	1-1 @ 11.21% 0-0 @ 6.29% 2-2 @ 5.01% 3-3 @ 0.99% Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.61%	0-1 @ 6.44% 1-2 @ 5.74% 0-2 @ 3.3% 1-3 @ 1.96% 2-3 @ 1.71% 0-3 @ 1.13% Other @ 1.87% Total : 22.14%