Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 40.86%. A win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 35.61% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.94%) and 2-0 (5.7%). The likeliest Montevideo City Torque win was 1-2 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.