Corinthians
Copa do Brasil | Third Round | 2nd Leg
May 22, 2025 at 1.30am UK
Arena Corinthians

Corinthians
1 - 0
Novorizontino

Alberto (90+3', 90+3')
Maycon (90+2'), Maycon (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Farias (42'), Farias (42'), Marlon (87'), Marlon (87'), Oyama (90+4'), Oyama (90+4')
Coverage of the Copa do Brasil Third Round clash between Corinthians and Novorizontino.

Form, Standings, Stats

Corinthians

All competitions
Copa do Brasil
Last Game: Corinthians 1-0 Santos
Sunday, May 18 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Novorizontino

All competitions
Last Game: Novorizontino 0-1 Corinthians
Thursday, May 1 at 1.30am in Copa do Brasil

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 58.78%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Novorizontino had a probability of 17.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.15%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Novorizontino win it was 0-1 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Corinthians in this match.

Result
CorinthiansDrawNovorizontino
58.78% (0.86300000000001 0.86)24.15% (-0.274 -0.27)17.07% (-0.593 -0.59)
Both teams to score 43.49% (-0.308 -0.31)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.9% (0.172 0.17)56.1% (-0.17400000000001 -0.17)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.83% (0.139 0.14)77.17% (-0.14100000000001 -0.14)
Corinthians Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.07% (0.39099999999999 0.39)18.93% (-0.394 -0.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.57% (0.649 0.65)50.43% (-0.652 -0.65)
Novorizontino Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.64% (-0.644 -0.64)46.36% (0.64 0.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18% (-0.498 -0.5)82% (0.494 0.49)
Score Analysis
    Corinthians 58.77%
    Novorizontino 17.07%
    Draw 24.14%
CorinthiansDrawNovorizontino
1-0 @ 14.6% (0.08 0.08)
2-0 @ 12.15% (0.22 0.22)
2-1 @ 9.35% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 6.75% (0.204 0.2)
3-1 @ 5.19% (0.065 0.06)
4-0 @ 2.81% (0.118 0.12)
4-1 @ 2.16% (0.054 0.05)
3-2 @ 1.99% (-0.01 -0.01)
5-0 @ 0.94% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 58.77%
1-1 @ 11.22% (-0.14 -0.14)
0-0 @ 8.77% (-0.059000000000001 -0.06)
2-2 @ 3.59% (-0.064 -0.06)
Other @ 0.55%
Total : 24.14%
0-1 @ 6.75% (-0.168 -0.17)
1-2 @ 4.32% (-0.132 -0.13)
0-2 @ 2.59% (-0.113 -0.11)
1-3 @ 1.11% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-3 @ 0.92% (-0.034 -0.03)
Other @ 1.39%
Total : 17.07%

Head to Head
May 1, 2025 1.30am
Third Round 1st Leg
Novorizontino
0-1
Corinthians

Jean (45')
Hernandez (10')
Caca (45+2'), Souza (83'), Raniele (90+3')