Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 42.4%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 30.51% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 0-1 (9.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
