Ahal
4 - 2
Al Gharafa

Amanow (8' pen., 69' pen., 80'), Beknazarov (38')
Mammedov (47'), Hojayew (54'), Geldiyew (65'), Bashimov (90+3')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Hassan (35'), Hanni (90+3' pen.)
Syahputra (64'), Alganehi (87'), Fadlalla (90+3')

Coverage of the AFC Champions League Group Stage clash between Ahal and Al Gharafa.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ahal

Last Game: Ahal 4-2 Al Gharafa
Tuesday, April 26 at 9.15pm in AFC Champions League

Al Gharafa

Last Game: Ahal 4-2 Al Gharafa
Tuesday, April 26 at 9.15pm in AFC Champions League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ahal win with a probability of 43.15%. A win for Al Gharafa had a probability of 30.9% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ahal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Al Gharafa win was 0-1 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ahal would win this match.

Result
Ahal	Draw	Al Gharafa
43.15%	25.95%	30.9%

Both teams to score 53.04%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.91%

51.09%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.05%

72.94%

Ahal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.46%

23.53%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.42%

57.58%

Al Gharafa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.37%

30.63%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.13%

66.87%

Score Analysis

Ahal 43.14%

Al Gharafa 30.9%

Draw 25.94%

Ahal	Draw	Al Gharafa
1-0 @ 10.42% 2-1 @ 8.93% 2-0 @ 7.54% 3-1 @ 4.3% 3-0 @ 3.64% 3-2 @ 2.55% 4-1 @ 1.56% 4-0 @ 1.32% 4-2 @ 0.92% Other @ 1.97% Total : 43.14%	1-1 @ 12.33% 0-0 @ 7.21% 2-2 @ 5.28% 3-3 @ 1.01% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.94%	0-1 @ 8.53% 1-2 @ 7.3% 0-2 @ 5.05% 1-3 @ 2.88% 2-3 @ 2.08% 0-3 @ 1.99% Other @ 3.08% Total : 30.9%