Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 47.76%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 28.26% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.01%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
| 47.76% | 23.98% | 28.26% |
| Both teams to score 57.97% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.07% | 43.93% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.69% | 66.32% |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.47% | 18.53% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.23% | 49.77% |
| Brisbane Roar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.16% | 28.84% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.3% | 64.7% |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
| 2-1 @ 9.44% 1-0 @ 9.01% 2-0 @ 7.59% 3-1 @ 5.31% 3-0 @ 4.27% 3-2 @ 3.3% 4-1 @ 2.24% 4-0 @ 1.8% 4-2 @ 1.39% Other @ 3.43% Total : 47.76% | 1-1 @ 11.2% 2-2 @ 5.87% 0-0 @ 5.35% 3-3 @ 1.37% Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.98% | 1-2 @ 6.97% 0-1 @ 6.65% 0-2 @ 4.13% 1-3 @ 2.89% 2-3 @ 2.43% 0-3 @ 1.71% Other @ 3.48% Total : 28.26% |