Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 43.03%. A draw had a probability of 29.9% and a win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 27.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.97%) and 1-2 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.21%), while for a Guinea-Bissau win it was 1-0 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burkina Faso would win this match.