Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 79.97%. A draw had a probability of 14.4% and a win for Djibouti had a probability of 5.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.73%) and 3-0 (12.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.5%), while for a Djibouti win it was 0-1 (2.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burkina Faso would win this match.