World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - North Central America | Third Round

Nov 17, 2021 at 2.05am UK

BMO Field

Canada
2 - 1
Mexico

Larin (45+2', 52')
Henry (13')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Herrera (90')
Lozano (14'), Araujo (90+8')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's World Cup Qualifying - North Central America clash between Canada and Mexico, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Canada win with a probability of 46.59%. A win for Mexico had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Canada win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.01%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Mexico win was 1-2 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Canada in this match.

Result
Canada	Draw	Mexico
46.59%	24.21%	29.19%

Both teams to score 57.84%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.6%

44.4%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.23%

66.77%

Canada Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.8%

19.19%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.12%

50.87%

Mexico Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.58%

28.42%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.82%

64.18%

Score Analysis

Canada 46.59%

Mexico 29.19%

Draw 24.21%

Canada	Draw	Mexico
2-1 @ 9.35% 1-0 @ 9.01% 2-0 @ 7.43% 3-1 @ 5.14% 3-0 @ 4.09% 3-2 @ 3.24% 4-1 @ 2.12% 4-0 @ 1.69% 4-2 @ 1.34% Other @ 3.2% Total : 46.59%	1-1 @ 11.32% 2-2 @ 5.88% 0-0 @ 5.46% 3-3 @ 1.36% Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.21%	1-2 @ 7.13% 0-1 @ 6.86% 0-2 @ 4.32% 1-3 @ 2.99% 2-3 @ 2.47% 0-3 @ 1.81% 1-4 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.68% Total : 29.19%